Are We Bullish Enough on Revolut? 🦄💸
FinTech & AI is Eating the World, 7 August
Hey Everyone,
Good morning & happy Friday! Today, we’re diving deep into Bullhound Capital's brand new 56-page report on Revolut, arguing its fresh $115B valuation is merely a waypoint on the road to $400B+ by 2030 & $1 trillion+ by 2035 (whether the report is actually bullish about the right things, the three options it leaves completely unpriced, including PRAGMA, the in-house AI foundation model quietly becoming the bank's operating system, plus the two numbers most likely to break the $400B path, & actionable takeaways for founders, operators & investors + bonus deep dives into the AI Monopoly Playbook, the latest financials of Monzo & Starling Bank, and The New Enterprise AI Go-To-Market Playbook inside). So let’s just jump straight into the game-changing stuff 🌶️
Are We Bullish Enough on Revolut? 🦄💸
Following the money 💸 FinTech giant Revolut recently confirmed a secondary share sale at a $115 billion valuation, roughly $2,017 per share and up more than 50% from the $75 billion round it set only last November. That makes the financial technology heavyweight Europe’s most valuable private company. Soon after, Bullhound Capital published “The Dawn of Modern Banking,” a 56-page report arguing that $115B is merely a waypoint: $400B+ by 2030, $1 trillion+ by 2035. Not too shabby! 😳
Bold as those numbers sound, the more interesting question is not whether they are too high. It is whether the report is bullish about the right things. After working through the full report, the model behind it, and the market around it, my answer is this: the thesis is right, the price targets are defensible, but the report is under-bullish on the three vectors that could actually make Revolut a trillion-dollar company, and over-bullish on the two assumptions most likely to break.
Let’s dive deep into this asymmetry and see where the report, and the market, are still not bullish enough. In the full essay, we’re:
Compressing Bullhound’s 2030 and 2035 model into one screen and stress-testing the valuation math against Chime’s and Klarna’s post-IPO de-ratings
Making the case for the three options the report leaves unpriced: Revolut Business (already a $935M revenue B2B fintech hiding inside the group), the closed-loop payments endgame aimed at Visa and Mastercard’s economics, and PRAGMA, the in-house AI foundation model quietly becoming the bank’s operating system
Pinpointing the two numbers most likely to break the $400B path
Mapping the 12 to 24 month catalysts, including the US bank charter decision, the UK lending ramp, and the eventual Revolut IPO
Closing with practical, actionable takeaways
That asymmetry, not the headline targets, is exactly what founders, operators, and investors should take away.
